Enrollment Projection Model 2003-2007

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION MODEL 2003-07

Traditional Undergraduate Enrollment: 2700 CAP until 2003

1)Based on Autumn '98 Actual Enrollment

2)Assumes 2.9% inflation rate in 98-99; 3.0% through 2007-2008

3)Assumes capping first-time freshmen at 600 beginning 2000-01; Transfer Students further capped to hold UG matriculated at 2700 through 2002-03; Transfers range from 25% to 27% of new students through 2007-08

4)Assumes implementing goals for moderate selectivity: for First-time Freshmen--2.5 PGPA in 1999-2000; 2.6 PGPA in 2000-01; 2.75 PGPA in 2002-2003/for Transfer students--2.5 College GPA in 2001-2002. Predicted GPA (PGPA) is a measure of future academic performance at SPU.

5)Assumes Fall '97 flow patterns for Continuing Students

6)Assumes 83% Persistence(FT Freshmen to Sophomores) by 2000-01, 84% by 2001-02, 85% by 2002-03

7)Projected Fall UG Matric Enrollment is a combination of

a)persistence of continuing students,
b)increased FT FR market share and applying moderately selective admissions standards, and
c)holding new Transfer students at 225 by applying moderately selective admission standard.

8)Assumes known demographic/environmental impacts

9)Assumes Common Curriculum impact on persistence, otherwise status quo educational program

10)Assumes changes in enrollment mix will occur within the enrollment limit set

11)Assumes continuing cost containment and identification of new sources of revenue for financial viability

12)Assumes first formal steps to "moderate selectivity" in 1998-99 (potential waitlist)

Fall Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected

1998-99 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Tuition $14,541 $16,857 $17,362 $17,883 $18,420 $18,973

Room/Board $5,575 $6,463 $6,657 $6,857 $7,062 $7,274

$20,116 $23,320 $24,019 $24,740 $25,482 $26,247

Demog Growth 584 677 704 721 747 749

Mod. Selectivity:
2.75 PGPA 2.75 PGPA 2.75 PGPA 2.75 PGPA 2.75 PGPA

Proj. FT FRESH below standard:
79 82 84 87 87

F-T Freshmen 584 598 622 637 660 662

New Transfers 236 225 225 225 225 225

Continuing 1687 1902 1938 1988 2050 2113

Fall Matric UG 2507 2725 2785 2850 2935 3000

Housing Need 1411 1586 1626 1665 1717 1750

Housing Need(plus 1%) 0 1602 1643 1682 1734 1767

Enrollment Cap: F-T Freshmen--600; New Transfers--225

F-T Freshmen 586 587 587 600 600 600

New Transfers 228 222 222 225 225 225

Continuing 1599 1713 1812 1916 1980 2017

Fall Matric UG 2413 2522 2621 2741 2805 2842

FR Class 718 716 693 688 665 568

SO Class 485 563 576 589 605 606

JR Class 535 581 648 663 676 691

SR Class 672 660 679 758 791 811

Housing Need 1326 1347 1388 1444 1471 1486

Net Tuit.Revenue $22,129,984 $23,550,437 $25,085,218 $27,198,594 $29,233,778 $30,957,470

Housing Capacity 1409 1517 1517 1517 1517 1517

Need to Accommodate in Housing

F-T Freshmen
95.00% 95.00% 95.00% 95.00% 95.00%

Transfers
38.10% 38.10% 38.10% 38.10% 38.10%

Continuing
49.00% 49.00% 49.00% 49.00% 49.00%

ASSUMPTIONS for Optimal Campus Ethos and Learning Experience:

1) Common Curriculum cohorts in FR year: 662 First-time Freshmen by 2007-08

2) Over housing capacity beginning 1999-2000 under current assumptions, policies, use of facilities

3) Assumes current number of permanent triple rooms: 40

4) Assumes 1% contingency for housing need to cover year-to-year changes in gender mix

5) Assumes Gwinn Remodel in Summer 1999 to expand capacity for food service

6)Housing capacity reflects construction/demolition through 2000-2001 as indicated in the facilities plan

7) Assumes resources--facilities and personel--to meet the demands of the enrollment growth

*ENROLLMENT PROJECTION MODEL 2003-07*
*Traditional Undergraduate Enrollment: 2700 CAP until 2003*
1)Based on Autumn '98 Actual Enrollment
2)Assumes 2.9% inflation rate in 98-99; 3.0% through 2007-2008
3)Assumes capping first-time freshmen at 600 beginning 2000-01; Transfer Students further capped to hold UG matriculated at 2700 through 2002-03; Transfers range from 25% to 27% of new students through 2007-08
4)Assumes implementing goals for moderate selectivity: for First-time Freshmen--2.5 PGPA in 1999-2000; 2.6 PGPA in 2000-01; 2.75 PGPA in 2002-2003/for Transfer students--2.5 College GPA in 2001-2002. Predicted GPA (PGPA) is a measure of future academic performance at SPU.
5)Assumes Fall '97 flow patterns for Continuing Students
6)Assumes 83% Persistence(FT Freshmen to Sophomores) by 2000-01, 84% by 2001-02, 85% by 2002-03
7)Projected Fall UG Matric Enrollment is a combination of a)persistence of continuing students, b)increased FT FR market share and applying moderately selective admissions standards, and c)holding new Transfer students at 225 by applying moderately selective admission standard.
8)Assumes known demographic/environmental impacts
9)Assumes Common Curriculum impact on persistence, otherwise status quo educational program
10)Assumes changes in enrollment mix will occur within the enrollment limit set
11)Assumes continuing cost containment and identification of new sources of revenue for financial viability
12)Assumes first formal steps to "moderate selectivity" in 1998-99 (potential waitlist)

	Fall	Projected	Projected	Projected	Projected	Projected
	1998-99	2003-04	2004-05	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08
Tuition	$14,541	$16,857	$17,362	$17,883	$18,420	$18,973
Room/Board	$5,575	$6,463	$6,657	$6,857	$7,062	$7,274
	$20,116	$23,320	$24,019	$24,740	$25,482	$26,247
Demog Growth	584	677	704	721	747	749
*Mod. Selectivity:*		*2.75 PGPA*	*2.75 PGPA*	*2.75 PGPA*	*2.75 PGPA*	*2.75 PGPA*
Proj. FT FRESH below standard:		79	82	84	87	87
F-T Freshmen	584	598	622	637	660	662
New Transfers	236	225	225	225	225	225
Continuing	1687	1902	1938	1988	2050	2113
Fall Matric UG	2507	2725	2785	2850	2935	3000
Housing Need	1411	1586	1626	1665	1717	1750
Housing Need(plus 1%)	0	1602	1643	1682	1734	1767
*Enrollment Cap: F-T Freshmen--600; New Transfers--225*
F-T Freshmen	586	587	587	600	600	600
New Transfers	228	222	222	225	225	225
Continuing	1599	1713	1812	1916	1980	2017
Fall Matric UG	2413	2522	2621	2741	2805	2842

FR Class	718	716	693	688	665	568
SO Class	485	563	576	589	605	606
JR Class	535	581	648	663	676	691
SR Class	672	660	679	758	791	811

Housing Need	1326	1347	1388	1444	1471	1486
Net Tuit.Revenue	$22,129,984	$23,550,437	$25,085,218	$27,198,594	$29,233,778	$30,957,470

*Housing Capacity*	*1409*	*1517*	*1517*	*1517*	*1517*	*1517*
*Need to Accommodate in Housing*
*F-T Freshmen*		*95.00%*	*95.00%*	*95.00%*	*95.00%*	*95.00%*
*Transfers*		*38.10%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*
*Continuing*		*49.00%*	*49.00%*	*49.00%*	*49.00%*	*49.00%*
ASSUMPTIONS for Optimal Campus Ethos and Learning Experience:
1) Common Curriculum cohorts in FR year: 662 First-time Freshmen by 2007-08
2) Over housing capacity beginning 1999-2000 under current assumptions, policies, use of facilities
3) Assumes current number of permanent triple rooms: 40
4) Assumes 1% contingency for housing need to cover year-to-year changes in gender mix
5) Assumes Gwinn Remodel in Summer 1999 to expand capacity for food service
6)Housing capacity reflects construction/demolition through 2000-2001 as indicated in the facilities plan
7) Assumes resources--facilities and personel--to meet the demands of the enrollment growth