ENROLLMENT PROJECTION MODEL THROUGH 2002

ENROLLMENT PROJECTION MODEL THROUGH 2002-03

Traditional Undergraduate Enrollment: 2700 CAP

1)Based on Autumn '98 Actual Enrollment

2)Assumes 2.9% inflation rate in 98-99; 3.0% through 2002-2003

3)Assumes capping first-time freshmen at 600 beginning 2000-01; Transfer Students further capped to hold UG matriculated at 2700 through 2002-03; Transfers were 28% of new students in 97-98 and 29% in 98-99; 26% in 2001-02; 27% in 2002-03

4)Assumes implementing goals for moderate selectivity: for First-time Freshmen--2.5 PGPA in 1999-2000; 2.6 PGPA in 2000-01; 2.75 PGPA in 2002-03/for Transfer students--2.5 College GPA in 2001-2002. Predicted GPA (PGPA) is a measure of future academic performance at SPU.

5)Assumes Fall '98 flow patterns for Continuing Students

6)Assumes 83% Persistence(FT Freshmen to Sophomores) by 2000-2001, 84% by 2001-02 85% by 2002-2003

7)Projected Fall UG Matric Enrollment is a combination of

a) persistence of continuing students,
b)limiting first-time freshmen by applying moderately selective admission standards, and
c)limiting the new transfer students to insure the overall 2700 UG limit in 2002-03.

8)Assumes known demographic/environmental impacts

9)Assumes Common Curriculum impact on persistence, otherwise status quo educational program

10)Assumes changes in enrollment mix will occur within the enrollment limit set

11)Assumes continuing cost containment and identification of new sources of revenue for financial viability

Fall Fall Projected Projected Projected Projected

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003

Tuition $14,130 $14,541 $14,977 $15,426 $15,889 $16,366

Room/Board $5,418 $5,575 $5,742 $5,915 $6,092 $6,275

$19,548 $20,116 $20,719 $21,341 $21,981 $22,641

Demog Growth 586 584 601 642 650 658

%/ Previous Year 5.07% 6.39% 2.92% 4.09% 1.37% 1.19%

Mod. Selectivity: Predicted GPA Standard

2.5 PGPA 2.6 PGPA 2.7 PGA 2.75 PGPA

Projected FT FRESH below selectivity standard:

24 41 50 77

Mod. Selectivity: College GPA Standard

2.5 GPA 2.5 GPA

TRANSFER Student Loss Due to 2700 CAP:

0 0 18 13

F-T Freshmen 586 584 577 601 600 582

New Transfers 228 236 240 225 207 212

Continuing 1599 1687 1775 1846 1894 1906

Fall Matric UG 2413 2507 2592 2672 2701 2700

Housing Need 1326 1411 1468 1537 1552 1543

housing Need(plus 1%)
0 1483 1552 1568 1558

Net Tuit.Revenue $22,169,166 $23,422,792 $24,456,183 $25,769,223 $26,883,654 $28,079,297

Enrollment Cap: F-T Freshmen--600; New Transfers--225

F-T Freshmen 586 587 587 600 600 600

New Transfers 228 222 222 225 225 225

Continuing 1599 1713 1812 1916 1980 2017

Fall Matric UG 2413 2522 2621 2741 2805 2842

FR Class 718 716 693 688 665 568

SO Class 485 563 576 589 605 606

JR Class 535 581 648 663 676 691

SR Class 672 660 679 758 791 811

Housing Need 1326 1347 1388 1444 1471 1486

Net Tuit.Revenue $22,129,984 $23,550,437 $25,085,218 $27,198,594 $29,233,778 $30,957,470

Housing Capacity 1329 1409 1418 1517 1517 1517

Need to Accommodate in Housing:

F-T Freshmen
93.32% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00% 94.00%

Transfers
35.17% 38.10% 38.10% 38.10% 38.10%

Continuing
46.35% 47.00% 48.00% 48.00% 48.00%

ASSUMPTIONS for Optimal Campus Ethos and Learning Experience:

1) Common Curriculum cohorts in FR year: 620 First-time Freshmen capacity

2) Produces 1999-2000 over-capacity in housing/unable to accommodate under current assumptions, policies, use of facilities

3) Assumes current number of permanent triple rooms: 40

4) Assumes 1% contingency for housing need to cover year-to-year changes in gender mix

5) Assumes Gwinn Remodel in Summer 1999 to expand capacity for food service

6) Housing capacity reflects construction/demolition through 2000-2001as indicated in the facilities plan

7) Assumes resources--facilities and personnel--to meet the demands of the enrollment growth

*ENROLLMENT PROJECTION MODEL THROUGH 2002-03*
*Traditional Undergraduate Enrollment: 2700 CAP*
1)Based on Autumn '98 Actual Enrollment
2)Assumes 2.9% inflation rate in 98-99; 3.0% through 2002-2003
3)Assumes capping first-time freshmen at 600 beginning 2000-01; Transfer Students further capped to hold UG matriculated at 2700 through 2002-03; Transfers were 28% of new students in 97-98 and 29% in 98-99; 26% in 2001-02; 27% in 2002-03
4)Assumes implementing goals for moderate selectivity: for First-time Freshmen--2.5 PGPA in 1999-2000; 2.6 PGPA in 2000-01; 2.75 PGPA in 2002-03/for Transfer students--2.5 College GPA in 2001-2002. Predicted GPA (PGPA) is a measure of future academic performance at SPU.
5)Assumes Fall '98 flow patterns for Continuing Students
6)Assumes 83% Persistence(FT Freshmen to Sophomores) by 2000-2001, 84% by 2001-02 85% by 2002-2003
7)Projected Fall UG Matric Enrollment is a combination of a) persistence of continuing students, b)limiting first-time freshmen by applying moderately selective admission standards, and c)limiting the new transfer students to insure the overall 2700 UG limit in 2002-03.
8)Assumes known demographic/environmental impacts
9)Assumes Common Curriculum impact on persistence, otherwise status quo educational program
10)Assumes changes in enrollment mix will occur within the enrollment limit set
11)Assumes continuing cost containment and identification of new sources of revenue for financial viability

	Fall	Fall	Projected	Projected	Projected	Projected
	1997-98	1998-99	1999-2000	2000-2001	2001-2002	2002-2003
Tuition	$14,130	$14,541	$14,977	$15,426	$15,889	$16,366
Room/Board	$5,418	$5,575	$5,742	$5,915	$6,092	$6,275
	$19,548	$20,116	$20,719	$21,341	$21,981	$22,641
Demog Growth	586	584	601	642	650	658
%/ Previous Year	5.07%	6.39%	2.92%	4.09%	1.37%	1.19%
*Mod. Selectivity: Predicted GPA Standard*			*2.5 PGPA*	*2.6 PGPA*	*2.7 PGA*	*2.75 PGPA*
*Projected FT FRESH below selectivity standard:*			24	41	50	77
*Mod. Selectivity: College GPA Standard*					*2.5 GPA*	*2.5 GPA*
*TRANSFER Student Loss Due to 2700 CAP:*			0	0	18	13
F-T Freshmen	586	584	577	601	600	582
New Transfers	228	236	240	225	207	212
Continuing	1599	1687	1775	1846	1894	1906
Fall Matric UG	2413	2507	2592	2672	2701	2700
Housing Need	1326	1411	1468	1537	1552	1543
housing Need(plus 1%)		0	1483	1552	1568	1558
Net Tuit.Revenue	$22,169,166	$23,422,792	$24,456,183	$25,769,223	$26,883,654	$28,079,297
*Enrollment Cap: F-T Freshmen--600; New Transfers--225*
F-T Freshmen	586	587	587	600	600	600
New Transfers	228	222	222	225	225	225
Continuing	1599	1713	1812	1916	1980	2017
Fall Matric UG	2413	2522	2621	2741	2805	2842

FR Class	718	716	693	688	665	568
SO Class	485	563	576	589	605	606
JR Class	535	581	648	663	676	691
SR Class	672	660	679	758	791	811

Housing Need	1326	1347	1388	1444	1471	1486
Net Tuit.Revenue	$22,129,984	$23,550,437	$25,085,218	$27,198,594	$29,233,778	$30,957,470

*Housing Capacity*	*1329*	*1409*	*1418*	*1517*	*1517*	*1517*
*Need to Accommodate in Housing:*
*F-T Freshmen*		*93.32%*	*94.00%*	*94.00%*	*94.00%*	*94.00%*
*Transfers*		*35.17%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*	*38.10%*
*Continuing*		*46.35%*	*47.00%*	*48.00%*	*48.00%*	*48.00%*
ASSUMPTIONS for Optimal Campus Ethos and Learning Experience:
1) Common Curriculum cohorts in FR year: 620 First-time Freshmen capacity
2) Produces 1999-2000 over-capacity in housing/unable to accommodate under current assumptions, policies, use of facilities
3) Assumes current number of permanent triple rooms: 40
4) Assumes 1% contingency for housing need to cover year-to-year changes in gender mix
5) Assumes Gwinn Remodel in Summer 1999 to expand capacity for food service
6) Housing capacity reflects construction/demolition through 2000-2001as indicated in the facilities plan
7) Assumes resources--facilities and personnel--to meet the demands of the enrollment growth