The Power of Early Success:
A Longitudinal Study of Student Performance on the Washington Assessment of Student Learning,
1998-2001

Executive Summary

For the first time since the 1998 inauguration of the Washington Assessment of Student Learning (WASL) in Washington public schools, it is possible to track individual student academic performance over a three-year period. In this research report, Dr. Fouts uses the opportunity to analyze how students progress through the various scoring levels of the WASL, and in doing so, provides an astonishing view of the consequences of early academic success.

The study makes use of district identification numbers to follow the progress of 14,860 4th grade students (in 1998) and 12,827 7th grade students (in 1998) for three years. Through the use of a creative flow analysis, Dr. Fouts demonstrates the three-year WASL results for students who initially scored in each of the four levels of the test. This leads to the dramatic finding that "In total, of students who scored at Level 1 reading in 1998 (4th grade), only 3.1% of those students were able to meet the standard (Level 3 or Level 4) by 2001 (7th grade)." This trend is confirmed for reading and mathematics results for both 4th to 7th grade cohorts, and 7th to 10th grade cohorts, a powerful testament to the importance of early academic success.

The report goes on to examine the impact of student background factors other than individual ability that might partially explain these findings. Ethnicity appears to be one such influence. Dr. Fouts concludes, "The likelihood of a student moving out of Level 1 between 4th and 7th grades was greatest for Asian/Pacific Islander students and least for Black/African American students," a finding that also applied to 7th grade to 10th grade student progress. While similar analyses do not question the impact of ethnicity on student achievement, Dr. Fouts suggests caution over making simple conclusions. Through the use of additional student background data available from OSPI, he suggests that "differences among ethnic categories may be at least partially due to differences in family income and other variables."

Educators interested in school reform should note carefully Dr. Fouts' findings on the predicted progress of students from grade 4 to grade 10 on the WASL. The analyses revealed that, "for every 100 students who score at 4th grade Level 1 in reading and proceed through the current educational system, approximately 34%, or 34 of those students will meet the reading standard when they reach 10th grade." Chances for eventual success on the WASL are strongly impacted by ethnicity for students who initially score in Level 1, while the differences among ethnic groups are reduced for students scoring in the other levels. These findings are indeed sobering, especially if no efforts are begun to identify struggling students early and change the dynamics that lead to academic failure. As it is, however, "The current educational system does not appear to be serving these students adequately."

Dr. Fouts concludes the study by offering observations that might lead to remediation efforts, including a call to examine the nature of learning expected between 4th and 7th grades compared to that between 7th and 10th grades. To be sure, the overall implication of the study is that efforts be taken immediately to address the dynamics of academic progress in the current educational system, and capitalize on the power of early academic success.

Martin L. Abbott, Ph.D. Senior Researcher
Washington School Research Center
Lynnwood, WA

full report (PDF Download)

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